NFL Predictions: Week 17

An identical (but solid) week of results  means I'm in a strong position going into the final week of the regular season. It's disappointing for the year's football to be almost over for most teams (and it really has flown by) but I'm excited for the post-season, which looks set to be a great one with so many strong teams competing. Most of the divisions are already locked up, but with a week of pure divisional games it should still be a fantastic close to a memorable regular season.

Week 16 = 11-5

Overall = 153-88

Sunday First Wave

Falcons @ Buccaneers

This should be an open and shut case with the Falcons continuing to fly high and the Buccs done. I wouldn’t put it past Tampa to make it competitive though.

DBL Coverage Prediction: Falcons by 7

Jets @ Bills

McElroy did not have an ideal start against the Chargers suffering 11 sacks, and I can't see him getting a much calmer ride in Buffalo. The Jets beat them convincingly very early in the season, but a lot has changed since then.

DBL Coverage Prediction: Bills by 10

Ravens @ Bengals

Tough one to call as both looked very good last Sunday, and the NFC North has already been decided.  Baltimore will have their foot off the gas a little so I like Cincy to grab a very narrow win.

DBL Coverage Prediction:  Bengals by 3

NFL Power Rankings: Week 17

**As always a reminder that my power rankings are not based on who I think is going to win the Super Bowl, but who would be most dangerous to play in week 17. Look out for my SB rankings next week, plus end of season grades for every team.**

1.            Denver Broncos 12-3 (U1)

Denver comfortably beat Cleveland as expected, and move up to the number one slot. 10 games unbeaten is impressive despite their weak schedule, and there’s no reason why they shouldn't make it 11 with a visit from the Chiefs this weekend. The best team in the league is a tumultuous thing to try and pin down, but right now Manning and the Broncos have as good a claim as anyone.

2.            Seattle Seahawks 10-5 (U5)

It’s almost the end of the season, and time to put my money where my mouth is with the Hawks. I've been ahead of the curve in their support all year so it’s only fitting I jump them up to Silver going into the final week. They just smashed the 49ers, and boast a ‘conservative’ run based offense that has put up 40+ points the last few weeks. If there are any Seattle (or Wilson) doubters left, I’d like to hear from them. More plus points are Sherman has just won his appeal and they host the Rams next.

3.            Atlanta Falcons 13-2 (U2)

The Falcons have been in and amongst the top 5 all year, so I think #3 is a fair assessment of where they are now. They’ve just had dominant wins over NY and Detroit and should feel quietly confident going into their final game against Tampa having already secured the #1 seed (they may well rest their stars in this game, so this and all my rankings assume teams field full squads).

4.            New England Patriots 11-4 (D1)

The Pats drop a spot after a lack-lustre win over Jacksonville. They had better hope their last 2 performances have been a blip rather than a slump with the play-offs looming, but are still one of the most dangerous teams in the league. Hosting Miami next should be a relaxed ramp up to the post-season.

5.            Green Bay Packers 11-4 (U1)

The Packers blow out the Titans, moving up to #5. Nothing more needs to be said about A-Rod and co., other than that they are blooming at exactly the right time. They've secured their division and will have all eyes on their post-season chances.

Bowl Season: 29th December

Rice vs Air Force
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl - 16:45 on ESPN

Two 6-6 teams will slug it out in what should be a interesting match up between two strong rushing attacks. Air Force rank second in the nation in rushing yards per game behind their triple option attack whilst Rice offer a much more balanced look but are still very potent on the ground. Rice are riding a four game winning streak, which should give them a lot of confidence coming into the game even if it is off a mediocre Conference-USA schedule.

Players to Watch
Rice: Taylor McHargue, QB 16. The man that does everything under centre, 11 TDs on the ground as well as in the passing game.

Air Force: Cody Getz, #28 RB. In a run game that features a little bit of everyone on offence, Getz has still managed to stand out with a 6.4 yard average on  1213 yards along with his 11 TDs.

Pick: Air Force
Confidence: 16

West Virginia vs Syracuse
New Era Pinstripe Bowl - 20:15 on ESPN

The early season team that everyone was talking about, West Virginia, rolls into New York to take on a Syracuse team that knocked off undefeated Louisville. The Mountaineers high powered offence really let itself down late on in the season and will be looking to help their defence out against a strong Orange Men passing game by putting up a lot of points.

Players to Watch
West Virginia: Geno Smith, QB #12. Video game like numbers and likely the first QB off the board come draft day, if he performs at New Yankee stadium like Marioan usually does, then I think his Mountaineers will win.

Syracuse: Ryan Nassib, QB #12. Here's another guy that will likely get picked up come draft day, albeit a bit later than Smith, he's still a good QB with the ability to post some huge numbers on a weak West Virginia defence.

Pick: West Virginia
Confidence: 22

Navy vs Arizona
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl - 21:00 on ESPN

The biggest underdogs of bowl season, Navy, take on a Sundevils team that got embarassed by Boise Sate in bowl season play last year. It's hard to pick against State in this one who have been very solid in all aspects of their game this season, but the men from Navy will certainly make them earn the win.

Players to Watch
Navy: Keenan Reynolds, QB #19. The freshman has been a breath of fresh air since replacing Trey Miller earlier in the season. If he can play within the system and not make too many errors, he might give Navy a good chance of winning this thing.

Arizona State: Brandon Magee, LB #8. A man with over 100 tackles is sure to have a big game stats wise against a very run heavy team.

Pick: Arizona State
Confidence: 15

#23 Texas vs #13 Oregon State
Valero Alamo Bowl - 23:45 on ESPN

A Longhorn team that's had a very up and down year will take on a Beaver squad that's impressed all season and outperformed all expectations. Oregon State rank 15th in the nation in passing yards per games whilst the Texas defence has been a bit of a disappointment for the talent that they have on that side of the ball. Amidst all this, the Longhorns had to send home two players yesterday for violating team rules, one of them being Case McCoy, you hope that Mack Brown finds a way to keep their heads in this game.

Players to Watch
Texas: Johnathan Gray, #32 RB. The freshman will hope to see a lot of touches in his first ever bowl game, he can have a big impact if he gets a good workload.

Oregon State: Sean Mannion, QB #4. The play of Mannion will be paramount to the Beavers success, will have to keep an eye on his turnovers to give his team the best chance possible.

Pick: Oregon State
Confidence: 26

TCU v Michigan State
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl - 03:15 on ESPN

This one is all defence against defence, the biggest thing to watch in the game is how much impact LeVeon Bell will have running the ball on the TCU front. If the Horned Frogs find a way to bottle him up, then they will be in a great position to pull off an upset.

Players to Watch
TCU: Trevone Boykin, QB #2. Having been pressed into action after the suspension of Casey Pachall, Boykin has done a fine job of leading the Horned Frogs. Ball security is key for Boykin against a very aggressive and physical Michigan State front seven.

Michigan State: LeVeon Bell, RB #24. Probably off to the NFL after this game, he is the focal point of the Spartans offence and will look to carry his 266 yards season finale against Minnesota into this one.

Pick: TCU
Confidence: 23

Bowl Season: 28th December Games

Thursday 28^th December

Ohio vs Louisiana-Monroe
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl – 19:00 on ESPN

Ohio somewhat limped into post season play by finishing 1-4 after winning their first seven games, which included an opening day triumph over Penn State, being lead by the junior quarterback Tyler Tettleton the Bobcats run a solid run game which is backed up by a efficient passing game which has only turned over the ball four times all year. The Warhwaks on the other hand opened up their season by stunning then #8 Arkansas, but ended up dropping games to Arkansas State and Louisiana Lafayette in Sun Belt play and are led by all-passing, all-running Kolton Browning. Look for the Warhwaks to push the pace on offence whilst the Bobcats try to play a controlled offensive game and rely on their defence to make a play.

Players to Watch

Ohio: Beau Blankenship, RB #22. The 5'9", 202lbs Blankenship enters the game at spot on 1500 yards  rushing and averaging 5.1 per carry, he even has a 269 yard game on his resume this year.

Louisiana-Monroe: Kolton Browning, QB #15. Browning has been far and away the offensive star and the reason the Warhawks upset the Razorbacks, he even leads the team in rushing with 441 yards and 7 TDs.

Pick: LA-Monroe

Confidence: 8

Rutgers vs Virginia Tech
Russell Athletic Bowl – 22:30 on ESPN

The Hokies have had one of their most disappointing years in a long time and only just managed to go 6-6 by squeaking past both Boston College and Virginia to end the year. Tech’s chance all fall on the shoulders of Logan Thomas and his play, at times he looks like a top level QB, but far too often he just makes horrible throws.

Rutgers have hung their hats on very strong defensive play, as they rank 5^th in the nation in points allowed, but also have a big play threat on offense in 6”6’ wide receiver Brandon Coleman who can provide a spark with big catches at opportune times.

Players to Watch

Rutgers: Khaseem Greene, OLB #20. ‘Tackle Machine’ Khaseem Greene (think ‘Mean’ Joe Greene), just made that up, but in all seriousness he has 125 tackles on the year as well as 10.5 tackles for loss and 2 interceptions. He is going to be a sneaky high pick in the draft.

Virginia Tech: Logan Thomas, QB #3. Thomas has a huge arm and the ability to make any throw, he just doesn’t do it all the time, and that’s what’s hampered the Hokies offense this season. If he has a good game then Virginia Tech will likely win the game, but more often than not this season he’s been poor.

Pick: Virginia Tech

Confidence: 19

Minnesota vs Texas Tech
Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas – 02:00 on ESPN

Despite losing Tommy Tubberville, the Red Raiders have a great air-raid offence to fall back on and will be looking for Seth Doege to lead as he has done all season and likely add a few more TDs to his 38 passing scores. The Golden Gophers really struggled through Big 10 play but are faced with an unfamiliar proposition in a very pass heavy offensive attack. If Minnesota adjusts to this then they should be able to put up a fight, but I’m not too sure that they will be able to pull off any kind of upset.

Players to Watch

Minnesota: Donnell Kirkwood, RB #20. About the only consistent piece of the Golden Gopher offence, had a couple of poor games to end the season but could find some lanes against a average Texas Tech defence.

Texas Tech: Seth Doege, QB #7. The fearless gunslinger that orchestrates the Red Raiders offence, he’s piled up a lot of yardage through the air, but needs to watch his turnovers.

Pick: Texas Tech

Confidence: 33

Bowl Season: 27th of December Games

Knowing that you’ve been missing some Double Coverage content over Christmas and Boxing Day, I’m back to preview a few more of the upcoming bowl games. There are a lot to watch in this run up to New Year, so stay on top of your Bowl Mania entry and hope that you have the magic touch when it comes to picking the winner (unlike me). A review of all of week three’s games will be posted next Monday.

Wednesday 27^th December

#24 San Jose State vs Bowling Green
Military Bowl – Presented by Northrop Grumman – 20:00 on ESPN
 

Here we have another bowl game where the head coach of one of the teams, San Jose State, has already moved onto another job, Colorado, and the players will be looking to complete the season without the man that got them there, Mike MacIntyre. Bowling Green are a very solid MAC team and rank 8^th in the nation in points against and so will be a test for San Jose State’s 11^th ranked passing attack. The Falcons offence will be looking to feed off of a strong defensive performance which has largely been their key to success this year.

Players to Watch

San Jose State: Travis Johnson, DE #43. The WAC player of the year on defense had 12 sacks this year to go along with his 19 tackles for a loss, and is a key piece of the Spartans winning puzzle as they will look for him to go to work and pressure the Falcons backfield if they are trailing and need to pass.

Bowling Green: Chris Jones, DT #19. Another conference defensive player of the year, Jones has 12.5 sacks coming from the interior of the D-line, Bowling Green will also be looking for him to regularly get into the backfield to pressure David Fales.

Pick: San Jose State

Confidence: 12

Cincinnati vs Duke
Belk Bowl – 23:30 on ESPN

After a flying start to the season going 5-1, the Blue Devils limped into bowl play by finishing the year with a palendromic  1-5, whilst the Bearcats finished at 9-3 including a three point victory over Virginia Tech. The key to this one could be Cincinnati’s defence which ranked 12^th in the nation and is backed up on offence by a strong rushing attack lead by senior running back George Winn. The Blue Devils on the other hand are very pass heavy lead by Sean Renfree who earned the Tatum Award for being the ACC’s top senior student-athlete. Despite this being another game that looks fairly easy to call, I think Duke might be putting up more of a fight than many expect.

Players to Watch

Cincinnati: Greg Blair, LB #51. The senior has been the lynchpin of the Bearcat defense and averages 10.25 tackles a game with 8.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks and 2 picks. Duke will be looking to keep the ball away from him, but may not have the choice.

Duke: Jamison Crowder, WR #3. This sophomore had a big season in blue and accumulate over 1000 yards on 70 receptions, which included one of those mythical 99 yards TD receptions.

Pick: Cincinnati

Confidence: 10

Baylor vs #17 UCLA
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl – 02:45 on ESPN

This one is late for all of us UK fans but I bet it’ll be a good one to watch if you stay up for it as there should be plenty of offense on show between the Bruins and the Bears. UCLA will be looking to top off their comeback season in the Pac-12 with a bowl victory whilst, Baylor will probably just be looking to chuck the ball through the air for as many yards as possible. The Bears rank 5^th overall in points scored and 3^rd overall in passing yards and are unlikely to play any defense as they have demonstrated throughout the season by allowing at least 45 points in 5 of their games. The key here could be the turnover battle, the Bruins have picked off a total of 15 passes and have a turnover margin of +4, whilst Baylor have a margin of +5 having 18 interceptions themselves. For me, the team that gets ahead early on could see themselves winning, UCLA have the ability to grind out a results on the ground, having said that, I wouldn’t count Baylor out even if they were down by a few scores.

Players to Watch

Baylor: Nick Florence, QB #11. The man who replaced RGIII has done a fine job in leading the offence with over 4000 yards and 31 touchdowns, I think the word gunslinger applies here and he’ll certainly be looking to slice up the Bruins defense.

UCLA: Johnathan Franklin, RB #23. After being a early Heisman contender, Franklin experienced a slow down in his production mid-season before having more 150+ yard games and finally ending the season with 194 yards against the Stanford front seven. Look for the explosive Franklin to get lots of touches tonight.

Pick: UCLA

Confidence: 17