Tuesday, 21 February 2012

BUAFL: Playoff Permutations


So with some big upsets this week, how do the playoffs stand for the main contenders?




The biggest game of the season took place on Saturday when Birmingham took down Loughborough in a must-win game. This puts Loughborough’s season on a knife edge. With the famed Nemesis situation it’s looking all the more probable that L’boro could finish 3rd in the MAC!

Another upset this week was the 12-6 win for the Nemesis against Warwick. I say upset, but I don't mean that Warwick should have won, just more an upset that the leagues poor scheduling could see an easy first round game for an actual playoff contender and a nightmare first round for a legitimate challenge cup contender playing Loughborough. In fact, if the Outlaws (who I’m sure L’boro and Birmingham will be rooting for) don’t do the job and beat the Nemesis, the challenge plate would become farcical with L’boro undoubtedly walking the competition.

Speaking of Nottingham, the Robin Hood bowl looks to be the deciding factor for the 4th place spot in the MAC, so that game will undoubtedly have an extra bite!

Elsewhere in the league upsets were abound in the SWAC. UWE snubbed a 9 point lead with 11 seconds to go, with the Demons getting a touchdown, recovering an onside and kicking a 48yd FG in the dying seconds to seal the win! While not totally crippling for UWE it does put them slightly on the back foot instead of being in a secure playoff spot and they will probably have to beat Cardiff to maintain their top spot. The next 4 teams in the division (Plymouth, Cardiff, Exeter and Bath) have a shot at the 2nd place position if they win out, but the top spots will mo ethan likely go to Cardiff and UWE.

The TVC has by far the closest playoff race out of all the division, with three teams Reading, Imperial and Portsmouth) on 4-2 and a reborn Solent squad just behind on 4-3 trailing the 7-0 Stags and the 4-1 Panthers.

Portsmouth’s’ decline continues with a loss to Reading in the ‘you wear purple’ bowl. I didn’t see this defeat coming; perhaps some key injuries are hurting the squad? Portsmouth’s’ season now hangs completely in the balance; with a loss to the Stags this coming week could see Portsmouth not only out of the Championship playoffs but also (results permitting) out of the plate! Reading starting the year off strong, but dipped in the run up to Christmas, now they can move forward knowing they are still very much in the playoff hunt.

There are likely to be some upset rookies at Southampton as there game against Surrey was called at HT at 50-0. This is not the first time Surrey have disappointed the Stags, with a no-show team on the day last year and a few years ago conceding after the 1st quarter at 28-0. Gutsy call for the coaching staff to stop the game, and player safety must be paramount, although I think Surrey need to take a long hard look at themselves, and the league needs to stop giving Southampton fixtures against teams who forfeit! OBU must be in love with Reading at this moment in time as it’s looking very likely that they will clinch the 2nd spot in the TVC if they can fend off the aforementioned Knights!

In the Borders conference, Newcastle are in firm control of the division and look like going 8-0 to take the division. Stirling and Northumbria look set to decide the 2nd place spot with their game against one another, I’m sure that will be exciting given what is at stake! Glasgow are still in with an outside shot even after losing out to Edinburgh Napier, but things have to really go there way, and they have to topple Newcastle in the process!

The Northern conference is looking likely to go to Hallam based on their form this year, a massively potent offence (as much as everyone hates it!) and a really stingy defence are proving tought to handle. Bradford are definitely in the running for rookie programme of the year (along with Northampton), taking down some really good competition. They are still in the running for a playoff spot, although the Sabres might have something to say about that! I wonder how the draw with Carnegie will affect this division!

Essex must love the boffins of Cambridge for potentially handing them a playoff spot. Kent were ranked #8 in our rankings and were seen off by a rookie programme! From the twitter feeds it seemed like this game was back and forth with the Pythons sealing the win in the dying minutes with some power running!

Kent now have an uphill battle and they still control their destiny, but that destiny means beating Hertfordshire which is no easy feat! It’s looking more likely that Herts will win out to clinch the #1 spot, and Essex will win out to claim #2, I’m guessing the Falcons will now become the biggest fans of Brunel and Brighton as they are the only 2 teams that look likely to be able to topple Essex.

Below them the outlook in the SEC is a little murky, with teams still due to play one another and bunched up closely around 3-2, 3-3 and 4-2 records.

14 comments:

  1. due to common opponents dont essex have the number 2 seed sense both have played Cambridge with essex winning and kent losing? Essex should have the lead by half a game being that they are both 4-1

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  2. Where is the twitter feed for the cambridge kent game?

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  3. Hull could sneak into second spot with wins in their remaining fixtures against the Celtics and York, especially if the Sabres lose to Hallam. Tomorrow will certainly be a big day for the Nothern Conference.

    If Hull do win both games they would move above Bradford due to that 'Draw' the Bears have.

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    1. Also due to the fact they have head to heads over both the Bears and Carnegie.

      Also the BUAFL website has an error in so far as Bradford have an inflated win percentage due to their draw while Carnegie do not. See how Carnegie has the same % as Celtics, while Bradford is higher than both Hull and Sabres.

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  4. hate the fact that winner is decided like that, common opponents is a terrible way to decide, what is the point of points then? Kent surely are the stronger opponents and are more likely to represent SEC in the cup play offs at a higher standard then Essex, Essex have done well this season however there not putting up big numbers or showing the strength that Kent does when they are on a normal good day. As for the challenge cup in the SEC still very wide open but greenwich seem to control there own destiny more so then anyone facing the other two teams in the running with UEA seemingly out of the picture canterbury and cambridge being two of the opponents left for them to play

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    1. minus the debacle Essex had at Herts which when Kent play they will put up 40+ on Kent Essex goes to show that their defense is at a higher standard than Kent. That is why you have to go with common opponents because there is two sides to points.

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    2. In the SEC again you seem to ignore the fact that Pythons are also able to win this but also.

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    3. Common opponents surely wont matter if Essex win out their games and Kent Lose to Herts, Essex seem to have their playoff destiny in their hands, so to speak, I have seen Kent and Hertfordshire play this year and i very much doubt that Kent will put up a strong challenge meaning they will probably finish 6-2 while if Essex can beat ARU(lol) Brunel and Brighton (tougher games) they will finish 7-1 and come second in the division.

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  5. Bradford didn't draw with Carnegie. They were losing 7-0 when the game was called. For some unknown reason it is down as a draw on the league website, despite the fact that league rules state, quite categorically, that the team which is ahead at the time of the game being called off wins the game.

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    1. The league clarified that issue that due to the fact the referee felt the game was becoming dangerous as he couldn't see the players on the field, Bradford did not have the right to reply. Bradford was 2 yards away from the endzone when the game was called.

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    2. yep, derby had a loss due to this rule

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    3. I'm pretty sure that's not quite the case as this game was called off in the middle of overtime. It would be stupid to give one team a chance to score and not the other. It's quite different from the Derby situation.

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